NFL · resolved market
Dolphins vs. Titans - Will there be 38 or more combined points scored?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc100d4e229c7ab1320edf2c9abc624146edd2fc131197e2e7c960967b75619a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Under | 51c | 8,692$4,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,432.72 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Over | 49c | 6,611$3,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,371.45 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Over | 51c | 4,617$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,267.44 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Under | 50c | 4,399$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.5 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Under | 49c | 3,504$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.96 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Under | 49c | 1,500$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 50c | 1,300$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ce…ab3abacked Over | 52c | 1,248$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Under | 50c | 746.07$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.03 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Over | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Under | 50c | 500$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.83 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Under | 54c | 297.39$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…9b8bbacked Under | 54c | 274.07$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Under | 51c | 110.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Over | 46c | 110.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Under | 50c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 49c | 58.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…24e6backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 168 | 45.8%77 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684e…03fcbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97db…d654backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dolphins vs. Titans - Will there be 38 or more combined points scored?this page
- Dolphins vs. Titans - Will Dolphins win by 3 or more points?Titans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.