Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc154a0d33338d54196c3be34b6b2bb2caaaf2efff7f679f31a975ccb4bcc8299
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 2c | 2,056$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,011.37 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x109c…9cc4backed Yes | 65c | 1,397$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.31 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 4c | 1,337$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.66 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 1,283$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,138$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.67 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked No | 5c | 962.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 19c | 938.34$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.52 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 12c | 820.61$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.4 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 66c | 820.22$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.3 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 70c | 799.12$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.49 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 2c | 692.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 33c | 683.31$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.77 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 667.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.82 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 31c | 574.57$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.89 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 3c | 559.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.09 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 531.57$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 5c | 528.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 80c | 496.25$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.82 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 45c | 435.88$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 11c | 424.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.32 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 9c | 372$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 356.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.45 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 337.81$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.44 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 6c | 331.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.43 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 53c | 277.82$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 38c | 249.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 232.53$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 37c | 176.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 16c | 151.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 77c | 150.34$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 21c | 140$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.21 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 7c | 138.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 36c | 138.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 22c | 130$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 122.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 47c | 113.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…434fbacked Yes | 54c | 112.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 42c | 103.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 102.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 49c | 98.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 79c | 98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 26c | 96.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 31c | 91.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…a2a2backed Yes | 42c | 86.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 59c | 80.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 42c | 79.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 78.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 45c | 76.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 48c | 71.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…0e4dbacked No | 45c | 69.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…93e0backed Yes | 35c | 66.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 65.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 53c | 62.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 63c | 57.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 74c | 57.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 46c | 57.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…96d7backed No | 79c | 55.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 41c | 52.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 79c | 50.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 79c | 50.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 58c | 48.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 32c | 46.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 77c | 45.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 76c | 45.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 50c | 40.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 33.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 30c | 33.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 48c | 30.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 49c | 28.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 27.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 57c | 23.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 22.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 47c | 21.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ae…133ebacked No | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 75c | 19.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 17.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…9bf2backed No | 80c | 16.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25d…4540backed No | 65c | 16.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 76c | 14.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 80c | 13.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.