TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,509
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,297

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,509 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes14c2,910$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.811,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes23c1,529$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.6925135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes6c1,391$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.552,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes15c1,345$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.158,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes14c1,298$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.845130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes7c800.61$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.731679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…f218backed Yes7c770.28$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.63525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes10c763.53$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8939427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes22c736.62$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed No79c722.8$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.892347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes14c684.07$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked Yes5c608.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.398920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes4c594.28$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.794,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes10c564.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.114734%16 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No77c506.54$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.731,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes12c505.02$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7834533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No76c500.04$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.932,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No78c464$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.882,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes19c429.15$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8123129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No76c393.89$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5372042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes9c385.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.953,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No77c369$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1519737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1839…a2a2backed Yes11c351.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.33205%1 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-88%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No60c337.83$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.824,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes8c330.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.31,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes13c329.11$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7956322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes22c312.6$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7015040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed Yes9c303.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.829238%35 W · 57 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes6c300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1915717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.341,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe547…271dbacked Yes7c274.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.452714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes15c259.27$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.932,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x197d…7006backed Yes9c246.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.65714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes22c244.04$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.723,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No79c236.37$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.783,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes13c235.95$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5285330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No73c216$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.934,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No75c215.11$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.784,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes18c211.12$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.544,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes46c206.79$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.233,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes8c173.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4429732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c172.87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xdaa2…f1f1backed Yes31c170.59$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes15c166.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.491,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes7c157.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.851,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6932…5f93backed Yes11c151.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.234621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes11c140$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.463255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0308…55c6backed Yes9c133.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+53.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb182…aef4backed Yes17c131.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.332025%5 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No79c126.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6211965.5%78 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7142…e79ebacked Yes15c121.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.782740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No68c120$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.95,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked Yes30c116.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.994235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes11c109.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.147239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No78c108.46$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2217759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes19c105$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7542643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed No75c103.13$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.782853.6%15 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd263…0cc3backed Yes11c93.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.272045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b37…8f10backed Yes21c89.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+56.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No79c88$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.483,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes15c81.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.92,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d48…3fdfbacked No69c80.14$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.841675%12 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+45.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No72c74.85$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7415669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.44,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes18c64.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.716453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes31c63.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204017.5%7 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No77c52.81$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0840862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb65e…190dbacked Yes28c50.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148451.2%43 W · 41 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.517637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87fe…03cebacked No70c49.71$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-51%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No76c45.93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.232,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No77c45.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6720660.2%124 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x109c…9cc4backed Yes39c45.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.882227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes46c45.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9510447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed No74c42.92$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2617457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0018…83a4backed Yes25c40.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No76c39.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.489951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes45c33.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No77c33.38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.632,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a4…434fbacked Yes37c32.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12219.5%2 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-79.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a2e…64a4backed No77c32.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.356361.9%39 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No71c26.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5835063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked No76c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.233661.1%22 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No67c25.72$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4951156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e3…9a51backed No40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1510830.6%33 W · 75 L-10.5wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No60c18.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2925877.5%200 W · 58 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No72c16.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6791861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No72c13.97$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9166944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.