Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36bdcd98b8b4a7b3850b1933fb0565f83027f4252145bf211bf5ef67f2b408be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 13c | 2,093$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.32 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 5c | 1,414$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x109c…9cc4backed Yes | 42c | 1,356$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.89 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,097$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.41 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,038$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 753.88$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.34 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 20c | 674$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 4c | 644.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 20c | 600$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 51c | 514.99$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.78 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 505.59$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 43c | 468.71$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 51c | 467.1$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.87 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 9c | 460.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 7c | 348.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 15c | 347.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 28c | 345.59$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 344.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 337.96$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 9c | 337.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 337.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 332.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 14c | 326.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 12c | 316.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 304.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 31c | 284.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 12c | 275.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 34c | 240.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.91 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 72c | 240.27$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 17c | 236.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 9c | 232.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 30c | 226.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…d91cbacked No | 73c | 210$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 63c | 206.07$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 16c | 201.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 17c | 199.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 40c | 193.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 26c | 190$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 6c | 188.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 16c | 174.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 19c | 170.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 6c | 167.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…a2a2backed Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 8c | 156.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked No | 49c | 152.31$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c2…a675backed Yes | 41c | 146.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 18c | 140$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 60c | 139.75$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 136.07$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 79c | 130.03$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 126.47$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 70c | 117.83$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 45c | 113.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 32c | 110.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 20c | 102.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 48c | 88.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed Yes | 19c | 74.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 67.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 30c | 66.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 34c | 66.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 35c | 62.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 19c | 61.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 37c | 58.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 28c | 56.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 56.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7caa…f4efbacked Yes | 33c | 55.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 35c | 54.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 54.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked Yes | 29c | 53.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed Yes | 43c | 51.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 51.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…5efcbacked Yes | 28c | 49.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7c…dc18backed Yes | 29c | 49.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 66c | 48.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…714bbacked Yes | 32c | 47.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 71c | 45.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc43…1271backed Yes | 66c | 45.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 64c | 40.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 77c | 39.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 79c | 37.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 73c | 35.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e27…d5babacked Yes | 34c | 30.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 52c | 29.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 40c | 29.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0c…b790backed Yes | 44c | 29.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 28.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…f00bbacked Yes | 65c | 27.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25d…4540backed No | 69c | 25.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 24.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…90a6backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 78c | 18.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.