TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,975

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,452 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes31c1,720$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5301,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes40c1,703$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.7325135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes26c1,000$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.0516724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes18c838.36$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.634533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes29c763.79$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.0910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe241…5b42backed No73c684.98$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.948756.3%49 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No72c510.03$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.982,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No74c469.73$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.691,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No75c441.06$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.024,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes27c418.58$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.218,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No68c416.66$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.762,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No74c411.83$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.082,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes42c351.79$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3639427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes5c345.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.542,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Yes28c300$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8116552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes21c280.57$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5416733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No68c274$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.645,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No74c262.95$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.111,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes5c244.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4347136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes47c235.61$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8527047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No67c216.78$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.273,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No64c210.12$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.044,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No67c209.99$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c195$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.353,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No52c191$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1719737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No68c182.28$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.291,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff3e…a90fbacked Yes9c180.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No76c173.98$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5692678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No68c167$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.914,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes10c162.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.251,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes35c159.03$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6815040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes35c149.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.751,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No70c145.84$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2926256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c141.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.985,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c141$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.494,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes30c139.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No70c133$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.986949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes21c121$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8617524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No60c118.37$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.394,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes44c116.17$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.114,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019137.2%71 W · 120 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3417637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2543959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5238…be0dbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232347.8%11 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick64cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No66c99.82$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.223,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes27c99.05$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.265934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6932…5f93backed Yes32c98.16$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.124621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No70c96$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No69c96$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.583,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes18c92.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3956322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7544…9597backed Yes44c91.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No71c90.33$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4863323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fae…70ddbacked Yes17c89.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No78c80.48$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.792,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa235…2472backed Yes48c75.5$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c75.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.427,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes43c70$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.117644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked No61c69$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.637541.6%156 W · 219 L-52.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No62c68.66$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes30c66.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.931,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No63c65.24$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3417759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No69c65$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1516453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No74c64$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.643,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No74c63.7$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.734,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7142…e79ebacked Yes38c62.74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.732740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes34c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5156048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x401c…6f40backed Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes19c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes35c59.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4795933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No57c55.12$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.474,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2049…c390backed Yes53c55.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.171225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes26c55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.390734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes46c54.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No74c54.78$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.242,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x267d…ed00backed Yes23c51.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes20c50.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0111225%28 W · 84 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No78c50.01$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.022,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2526067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No57c49.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2531649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x590a…70ccbacked Yes24c47.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No69c46$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.262,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No58c45.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1960054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes42c43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0954253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d48…3fdfbacked No73c42.45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.461675%12 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+45.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x468e…5548backed No74c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.64355.8%24 W · 19 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-3.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.23432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No65c38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.34,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbf21…e0c1backed No56c35.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6511163.1%70 W · 41 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No73c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.452,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes45c33.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes37c32.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.975438.9%21 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No71c32.28$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.332,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f5…6d8dbacked Yes37c32.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8260%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.