TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,681
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,614

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,681 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbce…507dbacked Yes5c1,103$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.67832.1%25 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff3e…a90fbacked Yes6c1,001$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes3c761.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.612,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes20c657.92$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3372042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes3c513.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.971679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes29c400$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.42347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes30c350$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1054,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes38c299.99$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9939427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c283$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.458,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No78c270$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.234,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No80c264.48$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.292,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes17c257.35$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes30c195$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9963143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes30c191.2$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5565934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c9e…c08ebacked Yes37c189.19$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-59.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c181$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.65,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No79c153.11$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.754,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c152.26$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.23,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No54c147.54$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2119737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes36c144.5$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6754735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6932…5f93backed Yes31c141.02$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.314621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked No54c128.93$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2237541.6%156 W · 219 L-52.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes38c126.03$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2363323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa235…2472backed Yes25c114.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No74c113.37$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9539966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c111.59$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8216437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No72c99.82$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.443,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No73c99.13$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.826,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No60c95$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No65c83.7$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.274,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No68c79.5$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.422,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8907…b9a3backed Yes34c72.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+62%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes16c67.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0556322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes36c67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.122,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c61.2$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.364,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No63c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.254253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.249675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes25c59.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-62.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes22c59.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2931319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes24c56.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7257150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b5d…38eabacked Yes47c53.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes29c53.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6414932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No74c53.2$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0860054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c82…6b5dbacked Yes22c50.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.751,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x738e…cc2cbacked No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.56894.1%64 W · 4 L+12.7wins+0.19per pick75cpaid+25.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x6b73…02c0backed Yes42c47.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202035%7 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes27c46.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3624141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No60c46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.460550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes46c43.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32e0…3884backed Yes36c41.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0311025.5%28 W · 82 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No63c41.7$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4330849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1080275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No55c38.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5491861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No75c36.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1782268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No80c35.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.11,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No75c35.33$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7335264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes31c33.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.351,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes31c33.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.184,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f5…6d8dbacked Yes32c31.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a2e…64a4backed No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.96361.9%39 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.370148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No67c29.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes47c27.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c27.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.885,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf913…9e87backed No59c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.669066.7%60 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed No76c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9517457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No65c23.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1415669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked No66c22.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x202f…9c6fbacked No65c21.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.611850%9 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadd6…2a5fbacked No66c20.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.991861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No68c20.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.52,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6986…5585backed No53c19.64$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.239852%51 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No52c19.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3266944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No64c19.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8923666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No67c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9446444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.