College Football · resolved market
Virginia vs. California
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc15e433933730271382e8b117bfc057a54fdbbca94fe8806f5e6e3577ccd9040
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginiaof Virginia, California
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $184,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked California | 14c | 28,433$4,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,043.3 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed California | 11c | 15,410$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.53 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Virginia | 68c | 13,000$8,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…ceb2backed California | 16c | 10,907$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.98 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed California | 32c | 10,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Virginia | 68c | 10,000$6,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked California | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked California | 32c | 3,185$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.2 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed California | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Virginia | 78c | 2,868$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.6 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked California | 32c | 2,205$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.78 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Virginia | 79c | 2,138$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.23 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed California | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Virginia | 67c | 1,800$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.49 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed California | 33c | 1,515$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed California | 26c | 1,430$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.01 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Virginia | 65c | 1,414$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.9 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked California | 32c | 1,404$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.26 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Virginia | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.86 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked California | 23c | 1,246$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.67 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Virginia | 71c | 1,100$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Virginia | 79c | 1,043$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.54 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed California | 34c | 1,005$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed California | 35c | 937.26$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.04 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed California | 25c | 777.66$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.87 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Virginia | 66c | 737.08$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.61 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed California | 34c | 736.02$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a3…d591backed Virginia | 68c | 614.71$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked California | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…3047backed California | 17c | 602.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…b63fbacked California | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Virginia | 67c | 540.3$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.3 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed California | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked California | 33c | 300.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed California | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed California | 13c | 230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked California | 14c | 205.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed California | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb0…acf5backed California | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Virginia | 77c | 175$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed California | 32c | 160$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52d…95ffbacked Virginia | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Virginia | 68c | 152$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…dd42backed California | 33c | 150.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Virginia | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed California | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed California | 13c | 139.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked California | 30c | 103.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…3cdfbacked Virginia | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…e348backed Virginia | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Virginia | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Virginia | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…5213backed Virginia | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd9…9ef5backed California | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked Virginia | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked California | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc14c…dd9abacked California | 34c | 49.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97b…5e80backed California | 34c | 45.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…4c2cbacked Virginia | 67c | 39.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2677…533cbacked Virginia | 76c | 39.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…a929backed Virginia | 67c | 38.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…1b08backed Virginia | 67c | 37.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed California | 32c | 36.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Virginia | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d5…0085backed California | 34c | 32.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9197…ba29backed Virginia | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe476…bbe7backed Virginia | 67c | 25.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec9…cc26backed Virginia | 67c | 25.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…bd87backed Virginia | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Virginia | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd6…b883backed Virginia | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Virginia | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Virginia vs. Californiathis page
- O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Virginia (-3.5)Virginia won
- Spread: Virginia (-4.5)Virginia won
- Spread: Virginia (-5.5)Virginia won
- Spread: Virginia (-6.5)Virginia won
- Virginia vs. California: O/U 52.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.