NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc194524ebb32721ac8235fe2c43de44d51250c1bd0a0fa914db28b972d2d623d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Mavericks, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Pacers | 53c | 4,824$2,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,267.39 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Mavericks | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pacers | 51c | 3,094$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.62 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Mavericks | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…6f0cbacked Mavericks | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Pacers | 53c | 1,681$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.55 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Pacers | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Mavericks | 46c | 1,300$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Mavericks | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Pacers | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pacers | 52c | 594.94$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.57 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…b202backed Pacers | 51c | 570$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.3 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…72cfbacked Mavericks | 49c | 570$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.3 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…a84abacked Pacers | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 48c | 243.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Mavericks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Pacers | 52c | 193$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Pacers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Pacers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pacers | 50c | 117.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Mavericks | 50c | 110.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Mavericks | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Mavericks | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Mavericks | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 587 | 54.7%321 W · 266 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Mavericks | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Pacers | 52c | 98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 535 | 39.6%212 W · 323 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d72…a88dbacked Mavericks | 50c | 96.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Pacers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Pacers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2278…8270backed Mavericks | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd15d…c293backed Mavericks | 51c | 74.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c9…0827backed Mavericks | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Pacers | 52c | 58.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5387…b792backed Mavericks | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…6ea7backed Mavericks | 50c | 49.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Mavericks | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…4c67backed Mavericks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…331bbacked Mavericks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe1…3559backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe115…4641backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8022…e1d7backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa4…7838backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4088…4ca7backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…05c3backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd4…5d74backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…74adbacked Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…3980backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…a3fbbacked Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf231…6b8dbacked Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4891…6c5bbacked Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1450…eae1backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3cd3backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…6407backed Pacers | 52c | 37.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Pacers | 49c | 36.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd890…7d09backed Mavericks | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb7…faf0backed Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473d…942abacked Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +51%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec9…458fbacked Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…8492backed Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…6e95backed Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793a…899abacked Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…bcf6backed Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…fb60backed Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3dc…8784backed Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d1…a3cabacked Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…191cbacked Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…93acbacked Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…2f1bbacked Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08d4…b870backed Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Pacers | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…9804backed Mavericks | 49c | 28.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…c5ebbacked Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Pacers vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.