World Politics · resolved market
Will Les Démocrates (LD) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc240f6dcb3339d78014deb0ae8a15fabb216ae634e9d2bc4b6189065bdc05dfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 18c | 3,463$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.63 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,029$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…a094backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 745.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 389.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 12c | 186.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 80c | 113.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…f572backed Yes | 22c | 100.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 78c | 85.68$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81aa…eee1backed Yes | 25c | 60.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 58.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Les Démocrates (LD) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?this page
- Will Bloc Républicain (BR) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?No won
- Will Mouvement des Élites Engagées pour l’Émancipation du Bénin (MOELE-Benin) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?No won
- Will Union Progressiste pour le Renouveau (UPR) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.