World Politics · resolved market
Will Union Progressiste pour le Renouveau (UPR) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5c40222f7fb89ce816686c4523f51e7681004b24f9b8641974869d1341e7047
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked No | 3c | 11,324$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.95 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce2…e868backed No | 41c | 4,088$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.74 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 63c | 3,849$2,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.88 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 6c | 3,362$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes | 72c | 2,964$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.58 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 71c | 2,701$1,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.56 | 188 | 30.3%57 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 1c | 2,090$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 2c | 2,034$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 4c | 1,696$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed No | 6c | 1,618$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 2c | 1,383$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…9c6dbacked No | 3c | 883.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 760.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 631.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 1,437 | 10.2%147 W · 1,290 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 571.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 3c | 508.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 400.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 8c | 399.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 77c | 376.18$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked No | 38c | 329$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…e9dabacked No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 8c | 279.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked No | 44c | 264$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 56c | 264$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…68d2backed Yes | 62c | 221$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 215.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 7c | 199.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 187 | 28.3%53 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…d534backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 29c | 110.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 62c | 108$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…f572backed Yes | 75c | 104.15$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…607ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +280.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 34c | 95.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0f…ec43backed Yes | 72c | 82.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 72.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 994 | 17.2%171 W · 823 L | -149.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 77c | 36.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff0…c7aabacked No | 76c | 34.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x704f…b859backed Yes | 78c | 29.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8271…4e50backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…d823backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 74c | 27.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…affcbacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 69c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd18c…4d47backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 71cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Union Progressiste pour le Renouveau (UPR) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?this page
- Will Bloc Républicain (BR) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?No won
- Will Les Démocrates (LD) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?No won
- Will Mouvement des Élites Engagées pour l’Émancipation du Bénin (MOELE-Benin) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.