MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc243c9e598c6e0a718a0b1237c79300da75465f8ddd7038859f28f430cea465e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 43,587$23,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,034.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 38c | 26,666$10,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,133.08 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 57c | 24,524$13,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,999 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 4,598$2,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,051.16 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed Under | 45c | 1,405$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.54 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 1,319$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.57 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 1,113$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 40c | 973.32$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.99 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 46c | 849.4$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.52 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 795$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 55c | 324.07$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.67 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…6831backed Under | 61c | 320.16$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 44c | 306.82$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.82 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Over | 51c | 278.1$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 56c | 196.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 61c | 162.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 42c | 149.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.54 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 47c | 144.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…d0aabacked Under | 78c | 134.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 43c | 96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Over | 56c | 84.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 46c | 68.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 52c | 59.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 42c | 51.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 56c | 46.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 41.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 57c | 40.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 57c | 36.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 63c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 58c | 17.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 76c | 17.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 76c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.