MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe70c83af8e7be48fb919ef895f4d62059bb7aa14e9ffc38ba81da934aa2e48e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Houston Astros | 40c | 1,238$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.2 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 16c | 1,230$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 1,146$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 1,097$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.68 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 918.56$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 847.79$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.99 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Houston Astros | 41c | 603.91$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.6 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Houston Astros | 41c | 603.91$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.6 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 591.99$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.74 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros | 22c | 542.21$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 22c | 440$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 396.35$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 280.1$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.24 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Houston Astros | 11c | 227.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 165$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Houston Astros | 26c | 152$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Houston Astros | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros | 39c | 116.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Houston Astros | 39c | 116$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Houston Astros | 38c | 113.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 99.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Houston Astros | 31c | 65.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Houston Astros | 41c | 60.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Houston Astros | 32c | 53.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Houston Astros | 32c | 42.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Houston Astros | 30c | 40.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Houston Astros | 39c | 39.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 75c | 33.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Houston Astros | 39c | 26.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Houston Astros | 41c | 24.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.