MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae15e13d315843c3889b2582a7d5292b25797f58685ea39d36eaf38ce5946c6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 2,135$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 1,611$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.14 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros | 44c | 1,517$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 41c | 1,193$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.35 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 17c | 863.48$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Houston Astros | 44c | 720.47$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.4 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros | 53c | 552.97$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.98 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 547.16$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 530.22$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros | 40c | 528.56$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.07 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Houston Astros | 44c | 353$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.93 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Houston Astros | 67c | 350.45$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.5 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 314.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Houston Astros | 35c | 305.91$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 291.45$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.27 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 202.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.85 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 146.91$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Houston Astros | 55c | 146.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 130.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 110.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 107.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 107.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 106.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 94.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 12c | 91.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 87.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Houston Astros | 13c | 80.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Houston Astros | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Houston Astros | 46c | 71.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…48a4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 67.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 66.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Houston Astros | 35c | 65.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 34c | 61.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 58.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 55.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Houston Astros | 39c | 54.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 48.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 47.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 47.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros | 66c | 46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 41.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 40.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Houston Astros | 68c | 31.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 30.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Houston Astros | 41c | 29.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 29.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Houston Astros | 35c | 28.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 27.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 24.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Houston Astros | 42c | 24.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 22.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 22.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 22.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.