MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf1ae477d16d8eef4889dde3bcc0fb6f4dcf7e3b4dd9954067f2e7622ce78c3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 50c | 12,172$6,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,081.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 9,480$4,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,737.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 1,040$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.8 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 624.06$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 50c | 562.83$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.79 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 424.54$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 77c | 394.06$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Toronto Blue Jays | 4c | 258.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 4c | 258$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 216.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 165$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Houston Astros | 52c | 130$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Houston Astros | 76c | 107$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Houston Astros | 69c | 60.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 57.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Houston Astros | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…2e8ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 32.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 32.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 29.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 75c | 28.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 25.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 25.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Houston Astros | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 23.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf6…baf9backed Houston Astros | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Houston Astros | 74c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.