Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2a3400ea65e4cb2ac4c1f6a73f79a11aad3e8ab56ccaf2944672a3f7ae768ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 35c | 1,166$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 61c | 514.01$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.31 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 62c | 343.46$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 70c | 231.42$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 44c | 229.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 57c | 226.12$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.37 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 72c | 208.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 166.52$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 166.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 74c | 126.09$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 26c | 111.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 96.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 65c | 91.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 75c | 88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 31c | 81.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 36c | 79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 51c | 77.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c12abacked No | 51c | 71.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 64c | 62.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 71c | 61.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 57.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 51.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 48.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 71c | 46.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 38c | 44.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed No | 34c | 43.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 35c | 43.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes | 65c | 41.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 49c | 38.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed No | 43c | 35.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 68c | 35.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 48c | 31.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked Yes | 69c | 31.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed Yes | 49c | 30.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 38c | 26.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked Yes | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 50c | 21.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 62c | 18.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.