Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc33c4f66bb9c6d41a127b54edd97616070691684b43c8dc9aa8d4bea0825dca0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 339.62$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 31c | 251.73$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.82 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 38c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.74 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 137.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 43c | 116.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 65c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 15c | 88.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 57c | 86.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 80.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 36c | 79.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 51c | 70.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 69.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 63c | 62.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 51c | 61.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 32c | 52.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 57c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 49.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 37c | 48.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 48.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 45.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 53c | 43.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 59c | 40.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 41c | 37.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 36.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 34.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 46c | 33.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 42c | 30.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 44c | 30.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 76c | 29.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 41c | 28.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 27.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 27.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x902b…6e29backed No | 57c | 27.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 64c | 27.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 26.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 75c | 24.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 23.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 67c | 23.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 21.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 62c | 17.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.