Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Casa Pia AC vs. Rio Ave FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc34d42bfa5a56b5a091615e7cefad9268a95ed46d9cb4016bb8041ad0eba6aab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 20c | 8,245$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.45 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 27c | 5,074$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,721.56 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 71c | 3,714$2,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.48 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 2,755$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.66 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 53c | 2,546$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.36 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Yes | 33c | 2,480$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 75c | 2,368$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.16 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 1,800$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.99 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 27c | 1,065$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.77 | 518 | 42.1%218 W · 300 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Yes | 75c | 670.63$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 47c | 650.46$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.45 | 174 | 21.8%38 W · 136 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Yes | 24c | 625$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 44c | 582.23$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.45 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 76c | 581.58$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.14 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Yes | 72c | 508$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 73c | 496.27$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.83 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 77c | 400$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 447 | 68%304 W · 143 L | +52.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 73c | 390.08$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…ca7dbacked Yes | 57c | 352.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…96bfbacked Yes | 78c | 334.67$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 25c | 318.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.22 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 76c | 275$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6802…da5ebacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 49c | 246.89$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 31c | 232.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.94 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 221.61$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.99 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 57c | 182$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 62c | 157.1$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5d…6cdcbacked Yes | 67c | 157.05$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 199 | 48.7%97 W · 102 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 66c | 149$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x685a…37e0backed No | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 40c | 146.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 74c | 133$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed No | 9c | 126.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 62c | 120$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…1184backed Yes | 62c | 113.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 132 | 65.2%86 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Yes | 63c | 95.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 55c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 44c | 62.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 74c | 62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 46c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 44c | 55.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 35c | 54.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 237 | 43.9%104 W · 133 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 50.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fca…819abacked Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a9…b031backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 78c | 47.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 58c | 38.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b5…8762backed Yes | 28c | 37.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 68c | 36.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Yes | 77c | 33.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 76c | 23.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 48c | 23.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2df…0bbfbacked Yes | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 71c | 21.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf496…b05ebacked Yes | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 13.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Casa Pia AC vs. Rio Ave FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will Rio Ave FC win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.