NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3541cd10b1eb9b342e1483d5962badfe52c257dd1648cc659e95379ea739c9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Rockets, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Pacers | 51c | 12,238$6,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,038.84 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Rockets | 44c | 11,281$4,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,989 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 54c | 11,130$6,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,076.54 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0993…f5acbacked Rockets | 50c | 7,557$3,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,742 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…4775backed Rockets | 50c | 4,280$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pacers | 50c | 3,870$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,933 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Rockets | 49c | 2,941$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.51 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…ef00backed Rockets | 50c | 2,506$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…55b3backed Pacers | 50c | 2,506$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Rockets | 49c | 2,040$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pacers | 56c | 1,875$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 31c | 1,315$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Rockets | 76c | 1,012$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Rockets | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…3531backed Rockets | 54c | 570.13$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.17 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pacers | 56c | 370.69$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.1 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Rockets | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Rockets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…c5eebacked Rockets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Pacers | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Pacers | 56c | 151.25$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Rockets | 44c | 124.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Pacers | 57c | 92.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Rockets | 43c | 89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Rockets | 49c | 88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Pacers | 49c | 76.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Rockets | 47c | 59.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…47a4backed Rockets | 53c | 57.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Pacers | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pacers | 49c | 33.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Pacers | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pacers | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Rockets | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pacers | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-15.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Rockets won
- Pacers vs. RocketsRockets won
- Pacers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Pacers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-13.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Rockets (-14.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.