NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa31b747d2c98dba4171e9e6ab0825e07d9becd793777bab15c8c9f49bf78b416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Rockets, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $232,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $231,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Pacers | 54c | 193,212$105,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87,924.51 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rockets | 46c | 79,918$36,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,562.98 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 46c | 54,540$24,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,846.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rockets | 44c | 30,000$13,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,200 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Rockets | 47c | 18,115$8,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,465.06 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Rockets | 47c | 15,830$7,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,439.98 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pacers | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pacers | 53c | 9,958$5,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,680.26 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 46c | 4,986$2,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,276.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets | 45c | 3,816$1,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.06 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Rockets | 47c | 2,500$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Rockets | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Rockets | 45c | 1,620$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Rockets | 45c | 1,620$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Rockets | 46c | 1,615$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Rockets | 45c | 1,333$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Rockets | 47c | 1,265$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.55 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Rockets | 47c | 1,200$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Rockets | 46c | 840$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.4 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Rockets | 47c | 810.64$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Pacers | 51c | 452.94$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.94 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Rockets | 47c | 366.38$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…aa3abacked Pacers | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Rockets | 52c | 145$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Rockets | 47c | 137.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Rockets | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rockets | 45c | 125$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6427…56bbbacked Rockets | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rockets | 47c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Rockets | 46c | 74.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Rockets | 46c | 65.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…3531backed Rockets | 52c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6127backed Rockets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Rockets | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…9baebacked Rockets | 47c | 23.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…4dc6backed Pacers | 53c | 21.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Pacers | 55c | 18.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-13.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Rockets won
- Pacers vs. RocketsRockets won
- Pacers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Pacers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-14.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Rockets (-15.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.