Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Fritz – Will Alcaraz win by 6+ games?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3908d316680e09e21bae01845e2fe05813241ff97f20b6443603ca5787f94c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 48c | 7,000$3,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,360 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 52c | 4,583$2,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.85 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 52c | 2,173$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.04 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed No | 50c | 1,558$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.76 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…e313backed Yes | 50c | 1,454$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked No | 53c | 1,345$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed No | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 50c | 1,194$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Yes | 49c | 1,177$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.73 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 51c | 1,112$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Yes | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked No | 52c | 380.08$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.08 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c36…f96abacked Yes | 49c | 295.92$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 48c | 222.31$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a62…57cabacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed No | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed No | 51c | 175.11$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Yes | 49c | 116.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 47c | 113.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…3ff7backed Yes | 50c | 59.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -35%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Yes | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…5374backed Yes | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7f…cf40backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.