Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3aa5ed00223c9579aad478053a677760e4db9a5016a7a16eeee8922da69c1cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 8c | 718$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 23c | 399.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.69 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 39c | 300.84$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.64 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 25c | 287.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.51 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 208.81$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 73c | 205.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 201.11$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 180.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 36c | 176.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 61c | 161.42$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 38c | 159.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 46c | 157.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…1ecdbacked Yes | 30c | 140.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 78c | 132.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 131.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.57 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 32c | 120.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 119.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 79c | 106.94$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 60c | 100.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 70c | 96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 62c | 81.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed No | 64c | 74.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 50c | 70.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 29c | 69.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3f95backed No | 71c | 69.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 66.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 65.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 31c | 64.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 63.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 63.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 63c | 62.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 32c | 61.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…5e37backed Yes | 24c | 57.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 40c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 43.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 48c | 41.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 41.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 40.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 29c | 36.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 48c | 36.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9a…8ce3backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 52c | 35.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 71c | 35.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 33.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 35c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 30.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 67c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 51c | 27.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 23.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 23.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 70c | 21.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 67c | 20.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 53c | 19.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed No | 74c | 17.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 68c | 15.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 78c | 14.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.