NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3fe0d80f8a6ae4b25a49866adfc7b2f558d91c7571de3738adf790a28d483cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc19e…c764backed Over | 44c | 2,170$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 57c | 913$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.41 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 905$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.67 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 76c | 483.73$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 46c | 457.92$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 11c | 334.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 60c | 330.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.9 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 41c | 223$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 32cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Under | 58c | 215.56$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…cadebacked Over | 45c | 202.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 53c | 202$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 10c | 169.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 55c | 143$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 69c | 135.09$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 59c | 120.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 45c | 111.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef77…f853backed Over | 41c | 105$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 58c | 102$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Under | 49c | 100.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 57c | 94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b5…2d74backed Over | 53c | 56.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 60c | 54.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 57c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 66c | 41.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 37.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Over | 48c | 24.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 56c | 21.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5this page
- Jets vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Jets vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Jets vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
- Jets vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.