Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc401dac89b68a9071f16fdd62060821cccc0238084c76e3806fffec9afe699cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 1c | 960.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 40c | 300.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 279.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 12c | 267.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 58c | 211.8$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 50c | 156.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 131.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 130.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 119.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 96.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 61c | 65.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956e…7e32backed Yes | 50c | 59.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 56.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 60c | 55.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 40.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 38c | 40.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f86…0b92backed Yes | 40c | 39.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 40c | 35.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 49c | 34.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 37c | 34.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 42c | 28.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes | 56c | 28.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 58c | 26.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…aee0backed No | 60c | 22.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 58c | 22.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 19?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.