Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Trungelliti (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4dbefc91bb5b8637fd05022fcb88ed2bd5b7f6de675c00592ef36855e533e78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fokinaof Fokina, Trungelliti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd849…6ac7backed Trungelliti | 52c | 5,785$3,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,025.61 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fokina | 47c | 2,400$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272 | 4,070 | 39.7%1,617 W · 2,453 L | +92.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f9…a28cbacked Trungelliti | 52c | 1,682$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.89 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Fokina | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 419 | 41.1%172 W · 247 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Fokina | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 436 | 43.8%191 W · 245 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Fokina | 48c | 524.49$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.98 | 2,212 | 42.9%948 W · 1,264 L | +34.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Fokina | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 263 | 45.6%120 W · 143 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Fokina | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 478 | 42.5%203 W · 275 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Trungelliti | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 265 | 46.4%123 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Trungelliti | 55c | 354.56$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.01 | 4,875 | 41.5%2,023 W · 2,852 L | -77.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Fokina | 45c | 320.63$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.35 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Fokina | 47c | 294.68$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.45 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Fokina | 49c | 258$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 7,100 | 49.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L | +107.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Fokina | 46c | 240$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 1,534 | 42.4%651 W · 883 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Fokina | 47c | 227.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 2,137 | 36.8%787 W · 1,350 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fokina | 47c | 186$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Fokina | 49c | 130.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 482 | 45.6%220 W · 262 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Fokina | 48c | 124.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Fokina | 60c | 119.24$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 373 | 36.5%136 W · 237 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Fokina | 49c | 106.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 4,159 | 52.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L | +66.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Fokina | 50c | 103$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 397 | 51.4%204 W · 193 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Trungelliti | 41c | 100.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 2,399 | 50.6%1,215 W · 1,184 L | +76.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Fokina | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 359 | 61.6%221 W · 138 L | +40.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Fokina | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Trungelliti | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 2,575 | 46.4%1,195 W · 1,380 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Trungelliti | 53c | 79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 1,802 | 58.9%1,062 W · 740 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Fokina | 50c | 73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 237 | 42.6%101 W · 136 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Fokina | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Fokina | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,235 | 44.9%554 W · 681 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Fokina | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 990 | 49.4%489 W · 501 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Trungelliti | 44c | 40.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Fokina | 49c | 38.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4271…3f6dbacked Fokina | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Trungelliti | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,073 | 60.4%648 W · 425 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Trungelliti | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 484 | 52.5%254 W · 230 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Trungelliti (+1.5)this page
- Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaAlejandro Davidovich Fokina won
- Set 1 Winner: Trungelliti vs FokinaFokina won
- Set 2 Winner: Trungelliti vs FokinaFokina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.