TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,801
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,799

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,801 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca7c…e994backed No59c788.07$462 inWon+$326.5237350.1%187 W · 186 L+45.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+28%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x48e3…03ccbacked Yes40c759.96$307 inLost-$307.166237.1%23 W · 39 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No61c384.99$234 inWon+$150.832,57646.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L+35.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Yes39c246.44$96 inLost-$96.118148.1%39 W · 42 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed No61c211.05$129 inWon+$82.4617054.7%93 W · 77 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes44c190$84 inLost-$83.627254.4%148 W · 124 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29bf…08a1backed Yes52c133.24$69 inLost-$6929645.6%135 W · 161 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb8…be69backed Yes42c119.5$50 inLost-$501250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde74…77abbacked No46c115.58$53 inWon+$62.4128873.3%211 W · 77 L+21.7wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes52c86.84$45 inLost-$44.7331554.6%172 W · 143 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes23c63.14$15 inLost-$14.7921051%107 W · 103 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc155…e36bbacked No60c45.36$27 inWon+$18.0578559.7%469 W · 316 L+25.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe103…4aafbacked Yes44c45.24$20 inLost-$201838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd2d…c4adbacked Yes43c38.74$17 inLost-$16.667646.1%35 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85ae…5399backed Yes54c37.05$20 inLost-$206446.9%30 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed No59c31.43$19 inWon+$12.841,29353.6%693 W · 600 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe26b…a9ecbacked No61c31.15$19 inWon+$12.159858.2%57 W · 41 L+8.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed No48c29.67$14 inWon+$15.436160.7%37 W · 24 L+9.5wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+33.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc2ca…4419backed No76c26.31$20 inWon+$6.318170.4%57 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick75cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cef…2c8dbacked No55c25.07$14 inWon+$11.2843460.4%262 W · 172 L+33.5wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.