Fifa International · resolved market
Nico Williams: 1+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9a9d61373a9499206fca96a71d89a7c58315a99c271cc926d47c24f842e2453
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 3c | 11,100$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.09 | 454 | 21.4%97 W · 357 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 6c | 8,500$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Yes | 7c | 5,273$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.56 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed Yes | 5c | 3,015$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.93 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…85b9backed Yes | 4c | 2,329$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,497$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1501…783fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,458$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…01f0backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…1366backed Yes | 10c | 959.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 43.8%57 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 6c | 959.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 462 | 23.2%107 W · 355 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf622…0848backed Yes | 7c | 942.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 6c | 631.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 561 | 51%286 W · 275 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160a…ddb8backed Yes | 6c | 587.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…49f1backed Yes | 4c | 514.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…1e9abacked Yes | 8c | 502.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 199 | 40.7%81 W · 118 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…4367backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7e…e7aabacked Yes | 4c | 387.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2efa…3296backed Yes | 6c | 326.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…bab9backed Yes | 6c | 309.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…0e0fbacked Yes | 5c | 278.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 162 | 62.3%101 W · 61 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…ae23backed Yes | 8c | 167.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.4wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1129…555abacked Yes | 8c | 134.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…c2f4backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5416…f951backed Yes | 19c | 53.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nico Williams: 1+ shotsthis page
- Alex Baena: 1+ assistsYes won
- Alex Baena: 1+ goalsNo won
- Alex Baena: 1+ shotsYes won
- Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ assistsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ shotsYes won
- Dani Olmo: 2+ assistsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 2+ goalsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 2+ shotsYes won
- Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Konrad Laimer: 1+ assistsNo won
- Konrad Laimer: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ shotsYes won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 4+ shotsYes won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assistsNo won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goalsNo won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ assistsNo won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shotsNo won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ shotsNo won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goalsNo won
- Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goalsNo won
- Marko Arnautovic: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assistsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goalsYes won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assistsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goalsYes won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goalsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Nico Williams: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nico Williams: 2+ shotsNo won
- Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Pedri: 1+ assistsNo won
- Pedri: 1+ goalsNo won
- Pedri: 1+ shotsNo won
- Pedri: 2+ assistsNo won
- Pedri: 2+ goalsNo won
- Pedri: 3+ shotsNo won
- Pedri: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Pedro Porro: 1+ assistsNo won
- Pedro Porro: 1+ goalsYes won
- Pedro Porro: 1+ shotsYes won
- Pedro Porro: 2+ assistsNo won
- Pedro Porro: 2+ shotsNo won
- Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Rodri: 1+ goalsNo won
- Rodri: 1+ shotsYes won
- Rodri: 2+ goalsNo won
- Rodri: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Romano Schmid: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.