Fifa International · resolved market
Rodri: 1+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9bf510c60529f2a36394e4e0cbafaae92534c940d65f6e117d6d3fe6af28608
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 37c | 201.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 373 | 50.1%187 W · 186 L | +45.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x11f5…ea34backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 222 | 42.3%94 W · 128 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 41c | 90.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 62c | 81.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b39…c9d6backed Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff88…601dbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +11.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…bd60backed Yes | 64c | 36.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +18.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed Yes | 58c | 36.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63bb…d9edbacked No | 55c | 36.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f3…975cbacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 57c | 30.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x760d…0786backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 145 | 57.9%84 W · 61 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x096c…25d7backed No | 80c | 23.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rodri: 1+ shotsthis page
- Alex Baena: 1+ assistsYes won
- Alex Baena: 1+ goalsNo won
- Alex Baena: 1+ shotsYes won
- Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ assistsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ shotsYes won
- Dani Olmo: 2+ assistsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 2+ goalsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 2+ shotsYes won
- Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Konrad Laimer: 1+ assistsNo won
- Konrad Laimer: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ shotsYes won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 4+ shotsYes won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assistsNo won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goalsNo won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ assistsNo won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shotsNo won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ shotsNo won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goalsNo won
- Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goalsNo won
- Marko Arnautovic: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assistsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goalsYes won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assistsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goalsYes won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goalsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Nico Williams: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nico Williams: 1+ shotsNo won
- Nico Williams: 2+ shotsNo won
- Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Pedri: 1+ assistsNo won
- Pedri: 1+ goalsNo won
- Pedri: 1+ shotsNo won
- Pedri: 2+ assistsNo won
- Pedri: 2+ goalsNo won
- Pedri: 3+ shotsNo won
- Pedri: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Pedro Porro: 1+ assistsNo won
- Pedro Porro: 1+ goalsYes won
- Pedro Porro: 1+ shotsYes won
- Pedro Porro: 2+ assistsNo won
- Pedro Porro: 2+ shotsNo won
- Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Rodri: 1+ goalsNo won
- Rodri: 2+ goalsNo won
- Rodri: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Romano Schmid: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.