Fifa International · resolved market
Croatia to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5998183b08b20407e3bb54040488965f035d1dcecf56f7263d610334d619050
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,833$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.96 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked No | 72c | 1,003$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.46 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x484a…316abacked Yes | 16c | 851.44$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.23 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 20c | 806.45$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.88 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 687.36$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.15 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 17c | 612.45$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 19c | 499.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc337…5984backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 196 | 18.4%36 W · 160 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 16c | 298.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 80c | 279.34$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9516…0bcbbacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 562 | 40.6%228 W · 334 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 69c | 168.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 68c | 168.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 17c | 162$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 419 | 68.3%286 W · 133 L | +65.4wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 80c | 142.21$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked No | 80c | 121.16$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 79c | 100.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3874…30f2backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 32.4%35 W · 73 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 67.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 25c | 42.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 62c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 855 | 50.6%433 W · 422 L | +54.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e196backed No | 69c | 31.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 172 | 29.1%50 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 335 | 38.8%130 W · 205 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 64c | 18.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 78c | 17.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Croatia to win the second half?this page
- Portugal to win the second half?Yes won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Second half draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.