Fifa International · resolved market
Portugal vs. Croatia: Second half draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb5eb99d96a27641194d3d7b2fcf516e1255ced71af0188c5135d2b469891fd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 50c | 4,315$2,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.89 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x484a…316abacked Yes | 52c | 4,060$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.97 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 45c | 3,610$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.86 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 62c | 3,316$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,055.49 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 53c | 1,351$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.79 | 233 | 63.5%148 W · 85 L | +19.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 69c | 1,263$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.61 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 61c | 1,222$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.88 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked No | 56c | 1,205$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.72 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 62c | 823$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.92 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 64c | 675.62$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.22 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 33c | 600.17$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.06 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 54c | 398.93$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.25 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 69c | 347.86$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 39c | 340.15$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed No | 66c | 278.35$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd2…e533backed Yes | 36c | 270.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 259.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.94 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes | 53c | 229.67$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.35 | 389 | 60.7%236 W · 153 L | +24.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 45c | 226.48$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 52c | 212.69$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.23 | 722 | 47.2%341 W · 381 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…4ba3backed Yes | 60c | 167.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 159 | 47.2%75 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 66c | 142.21$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 131.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4e…8413backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…9a45backed No | 42c | 107.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 105.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 70c | 82.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 63c | 76.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 39c | 72.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 586 | 42.8%251 W · 335 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…4718backed Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 135 | 37%50 W · 85 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…5619backed Yes | 24c | 67.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.30per pick | 35cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91c6…2f32backed Yes | 35c | 65.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 65c | 59.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 244 | 43%105 W · 139 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked No | 29c | 48.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 65c | 47.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…b6cdbacked No | 67c | 40.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed No | 61c | 38.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 201 | 86.1%173 W · 28 L | +46.2wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…444abacked No | 64c | 36.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 59c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc234…eac5backed No | 72c | 32.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…1e96backed Yes | 35c | 31.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2295…17e6backed Yes | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f6…b203backed No | 77c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed No | 69c | 22.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 332 | 37.3%124 W · 208 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80fc…d9ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked No | 78c | 18.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Second half draw?this page
- Croatia to win the second half?No won
- Portugal to win the second half?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.