Fifa International · resolved market
Portugal to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b37f9f983e1484cf29f2d06878da50642a78b1f1fd0c60147522163e6cd514a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 55c | 48,909$27,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,771.56 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 49c | 30,413$14,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,581.82 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked No | 0c | 28,560$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…59ddbacked No | 51c | 22,179$11,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,311.41 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 46c | 21,478$9,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,840.26 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 44c | 19,291$8,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,487.91 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 44c | 8,470$3,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,767.09 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked No | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.99 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 51c | 1,714$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.54 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…9097backed No | 49c | 1,604$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.93 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.98 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed No | 52c | 1,181$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.34 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 46c | 1,142$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.38 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 17c | 1,076$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.14 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 49c | 1,038$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.38 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed No | 49c | 1,034$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.77 | 617 | 52%321 W · 296 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 1,033$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.57 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed40…5657backed Yes | 54c | 843.5$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.01 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 50c | 636.24$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.96 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 62c | 610.95$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.82 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 24c | 463.18$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.02 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed Yes | 75c | 403$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.75 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked No | 51c | 400.37$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.35 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Yes | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…3e4dbacked Yes | 58c | 345.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.23 | 181 | 58.6%106 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14bc…3904backed No | 47c | 338.38$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.04 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 53c | 287.79$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.23 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed No | 51c | 278.35$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.27 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…e761backed Yes | 54c | 274.07$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.07 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 268.11$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.15 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 51c | 249.37$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.18 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5183…d4dabacked No | 52c | 242.73$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.22 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Yes | 38c | 242$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.49 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +28.8wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 23c | 219.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 43c | 213$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.75 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 55c | 212$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.94 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed No | 49c | 205.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…bbbabacked No | 53c | 189.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +34.7wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +61%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed No | 53c | 189.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | +25.7wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xefcd…a07bbacked Yes | 40c | 176.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.29 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…c991backed Yes | 50c | 164.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 52c | 142.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 131.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 53c | 121.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 51c | 121.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed No | 53c | 119$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +20.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x92a9…e971backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…a3fbbacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 389 | 33.2%129 W · 260 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…8eaebacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 329 | 28%92 W · 237 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 70c | 98.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 722 | 47.2%341 W · 381 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1911…5d7dbacked Yes | 43c | 95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 37c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 233 | 63.5%148 W · 85 L | +19.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…9a45backed No | 47c | 87.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 53c | 83.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…6194backed No | 61c | 81.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 200 | 56%112 W · 88 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed Yes | 51c | 64.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…4718backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 135 | 37%50 W · 85 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 63c | 47.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 455 | 28.4%129 W · 326 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 79c | 43.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 50c | 40.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 351 | 36.8%129 W · 222 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 40.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 340 | 35%119 W · 221 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 50c | 40.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 342 | 38.6%132 W · 210 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 50c | 40.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 361 | 39.1%141 W · 220 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 50c | 40.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 344 | 38.4%132 W · 212 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 272 | 55.9%152 W · 120 L | +36.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 419 | 68.3%286 W · 133 L | +65.4wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 201 | 86.1%173 W · 28 L | +46.2wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…50bcbacked Yes | 54c | 37.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked No | 68c | 23.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 669 | 32.1%215 W · 454 L | +16.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc234…eac5backed Yes | 77c | 22.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb96d…6af2backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 67.9%55 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portugal to win the second half?this page
- Croatia to win the second half?No won
- Portugal vs. Croatia: Second half draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.