MLB · resolved market
Reds vs. Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5ab4dc5f52e37c939d32f8443ba710540d8da3a401760d7b0602cb9c4b42cb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Redsof Reds, Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Reds | 48c | 8,580$4,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,477.5 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Astros | 52c | 6,550$3,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,408.3 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Astros | 9c | 1,016$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Reds | 49c | 1,014$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.96 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Astros | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Astros | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Astros | 12c | 899.45$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.39 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ba…0627backed Reds | 77c | 649.17$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Reds | 45c | 513.57$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.46 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Astros | 8c | 505.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Astros | 56c | 442.02$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.37 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Astros | 55c | 380.24$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Astros | 9c | 310$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Astros | 54c | 298.23$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.04 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Astros | 5c | 282.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Astros | 53c | 281.89$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a6…25bcbacked Astros | 54c | 274.17$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Astros | 14c | 247.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Astros | 55c | 240$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Astros | 53c | 232.8$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.39 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Astros | 52c | 232$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 46c | 216.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.22 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Reds | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Astros | 55c | 198.55$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Astros | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…6ffebacked Astros | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Reds | 44c | 168.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Reds | 45c | 149.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Astros | 22c | 106$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Astros | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Astros | 22c | 103.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Reds | 51c | 99.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Astros | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Astros | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Reds | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Astros | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Astros | 54c | 43.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Astros | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…ee49backed Astros | 54c | 32.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Astros | 56c | 30.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Reds | 79c | 30.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Astros | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Astros | 56c | 17.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.