TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kiwoom DRXof KT Rolster, Kiwoom DRX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$201,428
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$206,572

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,428 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1341…0853backed Kiwoom DRX51c68,583$34,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,890.631,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed KT Rolster49c33,856$16,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,589.331060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-7.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe7e1…ec43backed Kiwoom DRX53c30,000$15,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,099.973154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ea…832fbacked KT Rolster47c20,592$9,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,762.3920339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Kiwoom DRX51c15,000$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,349.9959750.4%301 W · 296 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Kiwoom DRX51c14,626$7,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,166.51,50250.3%756 W · 746 L+71.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked KT Rolster49c10,346$5,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,069.5457546.3%266 W · 309 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed KT Rolster50c9,726$4,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,840.65234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked KT Rolster50c9,667$4,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,833.314040%16 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Kiwoom DRX52c9,620$5,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,617.5855955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Kiwoom DRX51c8,482$4,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,143.15242.3%22 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed KT Rolster48c6,366$3,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,025.471,32038.6%510 W · 810 L-66.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked KT Rolster47c6,359$2,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,988.8159548.2%287 W · 308 L+15.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfed1…eedbbacked KT Rolster49c5,900$2,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8917030%21 W · 49 L-8.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-34.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked KT Rolster48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9367552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c49…03d0backed KT Rolster49c4,772$2,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,338.282638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Kiwoom DRX51c4,559$2,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,233.751,21343.4%527 W · 686 L-15.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14d4…c4bfbacked KT Rolster47c4,458$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.062050%10 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2056…2189backed KT Rolster49c4,352$2,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,132.48742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6799…9cc2backed KT Rolster49c4,196$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,055.82666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+72.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked KT Rolster50c4,000$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.089750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked KT Rolster47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41044550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed KT Rolster50c2,840$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.1918447.8%88 W · 96 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed KT Rolster49c2,510$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.8324642.3%104 W · 142 L-15.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe988…8343backed KT Rolster48c2,498$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.751741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid+28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Kiwoom DRX55c2,382$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.910939.4%43 W · 66 L-13.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-28.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd273…9a33backed KT Rolster49c2,360$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.42634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d56…9ad8backed KT Rolster49c2,330$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.7850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Kiwoom DRX52c2,100$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00892254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21df…7078backed KT Rolster49c2,100$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0291060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+36.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Kiwoom DRX51c1,900$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9241,80251.2%923 W · 879 L+53.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Kiwoom DRX51c1,780$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.232941%135 W · 194 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked KT Rolster49c1,735$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.367339.7%29 W · 44 L-9.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-26.8%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Kiwoom DRX53c1,600$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75232345.5%147 W · 176 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed KT Rolster45c1,401$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.851,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Kiwoom DRX51c1,359$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.2586144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe92d…ebe2backed KT Rolster49c1,315$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.29450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Kiwoom DRX52c1,156$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.7728253.5%151 W · 131 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed KT Rolster47c1,111$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.0352750.5%266 W · 261 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed KT Rolster49c1,096$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.321,52550.6%771 W · 754 L+3.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Kiwoom DRX52c1,079$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.9311561.7%71 W · 44 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked KT Rolster48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50035353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe081…fc19backed KT Rolster49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007630.3%23 W · 53 L-8.8wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf437…c0e9backed KT Rolster48c1,019$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.212035%7 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Kiwoom DRX52c1,000$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48517342.8%74 W · 99 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed KT Rolster48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48047455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked KT Rolster48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48032457.7%187 W · 137 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed KT Rolster49c999.97$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.9931838.1%121 W · 197 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Kiwoom DRX51c950.14$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.6149947.1%235 W · 264 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Kiwoom DRX51c946.09$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.0544451.8%230 W · 214 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb700…5a62backed KT Rolster49c926.2$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.239857.1%56 W · 42 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ef…b4f0backed KT Rolster49c902.82$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.381942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked KT Rolster47c887.73$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.231,61148.4%780 W · 831 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked KT Rolster48c867.1$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.2114352.4%75 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Kiwoom DRX49c800$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4051145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed KT Rolster50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba8…d72bbacked KT Rolster47c790.83$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.8317659.7%105 W · 71 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed KT Rolster47c638.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,01447.6%483 W · 531 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x321d…d0acbacked KT Rolster48c622.41$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.812462.9%78 W · 46 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5217…ec29backed KT Rolster46c600$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27621154.5%115 W · 96 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda4a…1c05backed KT Rolster48c600$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2903030%9 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99eb…0464backed KT Rolster48c599.88$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec6…698bbacked Kiwoom DRX22c596.71$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.434047.5%19 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked KT Rolster48c575.21$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.190937.3%339 W · 570 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e47…8611backed KT Rolster49c572.15$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Kiwoom DRX52c555$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.429927.8%83 W · 216 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x761b…cb07backed KT Rolster49c548.64$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed KT Rolster50c531.96$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.981258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked Kiwoom DRX24c515.38$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.6948944.4%217 W · 272 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed Kiwoom DRX52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24075738.6%292 W · 465 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed KT Rolster48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24028843.8%126 W · 162 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Kiwoom DRX51c499.99$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.9921150.7%107 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x19b5…c0aebacked KT Rolster48c478.84$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.847042.9%30 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Kiwoom DRX53c471.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.728150.5%142 W · 139 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Kiwoom DRX52c429.37$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.132053.8%172 W · 148 L+21.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4934…1cadbacked KT Rolster50c417.68$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.8430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x828a…894fbacked KT Rolster49c413.84$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee0e…38bbbacked KT Rolster48c412.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20076246.9%357 W · 405 L+2.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7253…0558backed KT Rolster49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018236.8%67 W · 115 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed KT Rolster50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked KT Rolster49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19679653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed KT Rolster50c398$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910959.6%65 W · 44 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Kiwoom DRX52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6247933.6%161 W · 318 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed KT Rolster49c365.52$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.161,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a73…9541backed KT Rolster49c350$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed KT Rolster46c333$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1852344.9%235 W · 288 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed Kiwoom DRX27c305.83$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.8735054.6%191 W · 159 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Kiwoom DRX52c300.07$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.0337548%180 W · 195 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed Kiwoom DRX51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14715255.3%84 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Kiwoom DRX53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14113030.8%40 W · 90 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d49…052ebacked KT Rolster49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Kiwoom DRX51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1471,18244.8%530 W · 652 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ac…b73dbacked KT Rolster50c292.8$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed1…1657backed KT Rolster50c285.1$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Kiwoom DRX51c265.96$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.3214247.2%67 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0a…fe3abacked KT Rolster48c254.16$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1229738.1%37 W · 60 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked KT Rolster49c248.98$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12228852.1%150 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed KT Rolster47c240$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.81,11748.8%545 W · 572 L+40.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked KT Rolster48c209.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7960538.8%235 W · 370 L-1.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x094d…5a65backed KT Rolster48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005646.4%26 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.