Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc645b4203c74d79ebc225a057da46f2438600c472c0d4c4779a13d90e450bc35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 68c | 461.19$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.99 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 64c | 408.27$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.65 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 37c | 314.88$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.81 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 59c | 313.9$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 68c | 290.87$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 198.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 188.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 186.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6173…31d4backed No | 59c | 168.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 77c | 155.93$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 151$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 73c | 137.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 25c | 130.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 40c | 125.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 55c | 122.95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 35c | 104.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 33c | 95.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 37c | 86.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 45c | 85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 70c | 80.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 80.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 76.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 44c | 73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 58c | 68.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 64.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 44c | 60.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 27c | 59.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 59.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa851…d3c4backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d20…c41abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 39.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 80c | 38.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 68c | 37.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 66c | 34.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 33.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 54c | 32.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 66c | 32.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 45c | 31.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 44c | 28.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 46c | 24.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 65c | 21.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 19.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 79c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 58c | 18.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 64c | 16.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or higher on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.