Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f70e744a8f69b8edd0ce25446bc468b09d92c0886dd8583097aa253bad51003
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 71c | 1,068$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.59 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 36c | 460.1$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 25c | 457.8$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 16c | 300.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 74c | 282.88$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 12c | 221.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 18c | 181.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 521 | 43.6%227 W · 294 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 144.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 20c | 143.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 26c | 137.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.14 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 31c | 132.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 41c | 125.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 14c | 121$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 16c | 119.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 847 | 48.5%411 W · 436 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 119.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 117.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 115$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed Yes | 78c | 114.28$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 33 | 81.8%27 W · 6 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…6c81backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 78c | 99.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 575 | 54.3%312 W · 263 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 14c | 89.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 980 | 13.9%136 W · 844 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 53c | 84.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 77.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 67c | 75.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 30c | 73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 1,063 | 35.1%373 W · 690 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 31c | 71.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 20c | 68.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…db52backed No | 54c | 66.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 55c | 60.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 59.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 40c | 59.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed6a…aeb9backed Yes | 70c | 56.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 54.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 20c | 50.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 52c | 46.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 74c | 42.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 233 | 59.7%139 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 35c | 42.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 194 | 39.7%77 W · 117 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 44c | 34.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 32.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 53c | 32.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 28.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 22.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f6…f7e6backed No | 70c | 21.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 408 | 66.4%271 W · 137 L | +35.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66e4…5583backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4b…488bbacked No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 73cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or higher on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.