NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Heat
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc674bf5ab807cfa1a040709478726de705a5505b69ad05155a6ce61501ba1b1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Magic | 48c | 5,307$2,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,774.01 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…b7edbacked Heat | 50c | 3,555$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.23 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Heat | 57c | 3,508$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Magic | 44c | 1,754$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.94 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6a…596fbacked Heat | 57c | 1,453$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Heat | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Magic | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224c…eb44backed Heat | 56c | 795.89$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Magic | 65c | 783.69$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.74 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Magic | 44c | 747.9$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.82 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Magic | 43c | 614.69$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.41 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Heat | 56c | 599.68$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.82 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Magic | 47c | 477.75$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.98 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked Heat | 56c | 402.32$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Magic | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Magic | 44c | 333$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.48 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…65fabacked Magic | 46c | 250.82$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.82 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…ce62backed Heat | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…3087backed Heat | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…12a3backed Magic | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Magic | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x910b…8b73backed Heat | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…16c1backed Heat | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Magic | 46c | 133.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…362dbacked Magic | 60c | 131.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6d…ec40backed Magic | 62c | 128.04$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7742…03e9backed Heat | 33c | 114.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -17.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87c4…490ebacked Heat | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…18a5backed Heat | 30c | 104.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Magic | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Magic | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…7d08backed Heat | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…bfabbacked Magic | 47c | 98.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x957e…da1ebacked Magic | 52c | 95.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2251…7c1dbacked Heat | 56c | 95.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Magic | 61c | 94.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9273…fcf8backed Heat | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Magic | 44c | 80.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Magic | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…476dbacked Magic | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…3a25backed Heat | 56c | 56.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2190…36babacked Heat | 54c | 55.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…bfd9backed Heat | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0299…fc44backed Magic | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Magic | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 45c | 49.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Heat | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Heat | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 62.3%152 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…b5f4backed Magic | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Heat | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 69.1%96 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2558…9acebacked Heat | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8c…aa69backed Heat | 58c | 34.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…5468backed Magic | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Heat | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 47.8%66 W · 72 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…a509backed Magic | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…2492backed Heat | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6799…6eebbacked Heat | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…e6e2backed Heat | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.