Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Janelle Stelson be the Democratic Nominee for PA-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6867b3fa6b81bbb65f85a3a7302757624137a6c128b685e5a4645e1243d01ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 74c | 1,637$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.61 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 9c | 532.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 155 | 31%48 W · 107 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 74c | 420$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 27c | 373.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 23c | 226.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 18c | 202$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked No | 26c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 26c | 163.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 147$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 11c | 137.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 21c | 84.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 25c | 75.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 21c | 66.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…3036backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…3ea5backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…83dcbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Janelle Stelson be the Democratic Nominee for PA-10?this page
- Will Jason Cass be the Democratic Nominee for PA-10?No won
- Will Justin Douglas be the Democratic Nominee for PA-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.