Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6952581179032b513cb6622a2cec185ed8e3dda35e41e19f9d3aa4ef2e87000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester United FCof Manchester United FC, Brighton & Hove Albion FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed Manchester United FC | 14c | 7,369$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,369.24 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Manchester United FC | 78c | 2,226$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.24 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Manchester United FC | 12c | 1,976$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,742.4 | 162 | 32.1%52 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…68b5backed Manchester United FC | 80c | 1,600$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…68e5backed Manchester United FC | 11c | 1,474$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…7c31backed Manchester United FC | 13c | 1,443$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.08 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e7…8c47backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Manchester United FC | 11c | 877.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.04 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 48c | 867.31$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.31 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 49c | 849.61$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.31 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 49c | 843.14$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.14 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 32c | 740.3$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.94 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 58c | 587.15$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.53 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ca…219bbacked Manchester United FC | 12c | 409.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…afedbacked Manchester United FC | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.62 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Manchester United FC | 13c | 363.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.21 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Manchester United FC | 79c | 305.07$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…591fbacked Manchester United FC | 15c | 245$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Manchester United FC | 11c | 229.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.91 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | -13.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Manchester United FC | 78c | 223.42$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Manchester United FC | 51c | 114.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Manchester United FC | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 378 | 40.5%153 W · 225 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4287…3d5ebacked Manchester United FC | 13c | 78.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…5e62backed Manchester United FC | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)this page
- Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.