NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Devils: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6aadcbdb41baa3be38b6f858835b8d23efe895b2b1aa76f9aaf9d0cf8ed6c08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 49c | 15,718$7,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,701.78 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 51c | 9,301$4,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,527.22 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…5862backed Under | 51c | 4,910$2,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,405.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 3,077$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.96 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…e780backed Under | 51c | 1,265$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d8…b669backed Under | 51c | 858.82$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 696.77$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.52 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 49c | 557.92$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.54 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 313.73$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.73 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…7c2abacked Under | 51c | 97.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 49c | 81.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 45c | 67.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 50c | 58.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…75adbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Over | 50c | 38.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 31c | 37.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Under | 52c | 21.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 50c | 20.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Devils: O/U 6.5this page
- Sabres vs. DevilsSabres won
- Sabres vs. Devils: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.