Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6aee557b76aed2cc4e77d0d5a38984ab90ae555a5bfc8b99a9a50b70a9109bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 66c | 1,505$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.25 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 45c | 1,007$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.11 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…bac2backed No | 77c | 752.31$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.28 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 558.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 19c | 391.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…31f0backed No | 38c | 371.1$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.73 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed No | 56c | 307.2$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.09 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 39c | 256.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…00c1backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 63c | 194$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes | 65c | 190$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…3c56backed Yes | 18c | 135.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…af3bbacked Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…2606backed Yes | 26c | 102.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 100.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…b759backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a9…516abacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2e…027cbacked Yes | 27c | 82.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 20c | 78.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes | 24c | 60.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -10.8wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 51.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 18.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 79c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on April 24?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on April 24?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on April 24?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on April 24?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on April 24?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on April 24?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on April 24?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.