Premier League · resolved market
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6b12bf57ff6cb928c5591534772f4c06b6a8a81953b0f5a092d8edd2271ae43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb569…5695backed Over | 22c | 3,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.82 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 79c | 672.11$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.02 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 79c | 477.1$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.19 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 21c | 477.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…ca90backed Under | 80c | 469$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Under | 79c | 463.53$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.34 | 182 | 59.3%108 W · 74 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 447.08$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.77 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 312.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Under | 80c | 262.21$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under | 80c | 250.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 20c | 206.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked Over | 21c | 152$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 79c | 69.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a50…6c6bbacked Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…4bf1backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25e7…51d6backed Over | 21c | 48.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Under | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 80c | 21.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed Under | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.