Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a7ac53998f6eed896170a573a9520302b07baf866d95a6bdd3a6d7b4396fc2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Newcastle United FCof Manchester United FC, Newcastle United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac47…d234backed Manchester United FC | 19c | 25,975$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Manchester United FC | 19c | 4,210$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.9 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Newcastle United FC | 76c | 3,787$2,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.47 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Manchester United FC | 18c | 2,073$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.14 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x132e…c724backed Manchester United FC | 25c | 1,809$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.07 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Manchester United FC | 18c | 1,768$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.86 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0a…4a63backed Manchester United FC | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Manchester United FC | 17c | 348.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Manchester United FC | 19c | 242.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…8384backed Manchester United FC | 28c | 225.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Manchester United FC | 16c | 223.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Manchester United FC | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 378 | 40.5%153 W · 225 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…9c04backed Manchester United FC | 17c | 199.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…0be0backed Newcastle United FC | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Manchester United FC | 18c | 141.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…8fa1backed Manchester United FC | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…231cbacked Manchester United FC | 14c | 109$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…2523backed Manchester United FC | 19c | 103.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Manchester United FC | 16c | 91.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Manchester United FC | 18c | 74.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Manchester United FC | 19c | 60.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Newcastle United FC | 80c | 57.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Newcastle United FC | 74c | 56.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…349cbacked Manchester United FC | 34c | 45.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Newcastle United FC | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Newcastle United FC | 71c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…7292backed Newcastle United FC | 74c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.