Premier League · resolved market
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x474672503fe624c6cf1033eb8d398d821309de2a162059bb74f13853b566e5a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 14,053$2,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,251.42 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 20c | 6,530$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,198.81 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…0accbacked Under | 34c | 1,484$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 13c | 719.57$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.79 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under | 18c | 518$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.76 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under | 18c | 438.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.85 | 181 | 24.9%45 W · 136 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Under | 17c | 381.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.44 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Under | 19c | 349.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.97 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 71c | 325.35$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x276f…bfb5backed Over | 60c | 267.91$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…bb79backed Over | 78c | 250$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 248.96$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 43c | 232.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Under | 67c | 218.87$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 63c | 197.26$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 34c | 162.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.95 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 15c | 160$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.71 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 66c | 137.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…09aebacked Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 65cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 42c | 120.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 328 | 22.3%73 W · 255 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +45%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 18c | 99.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…6bdbbacked Under | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +146.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 68c | 90$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…8e1cbacked Over | 57c | 87.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…4bf1backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 15c | 75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 290 | 41.7%121 W · 169 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 19c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 78c | 64.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 18c | 59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 53c | 58.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…cce7backed Over | 72c | 56.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…0ba7backed Over | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d3…45c3backed Over | 72c | 47.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2a…37f4backed Under | 30c | 44.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc5…337cbacked Over | 73c | 39.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Over | 79c | 39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…0ea4backed Under | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Over | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 286 | 54.2%155 W · 131 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…dad2backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Over | 66c | 21.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 139 | 41%57 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…c6dabacked Over | 56c | 20.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…e273backed Over | 74c | 14.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.