Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6b522acb26ce6917c7d93a40cf826384f65fec4d1e4e613b5e053fb91e69c3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 637.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 598.95$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.64 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 366.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 22c | 334.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 32c | 300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 295.92$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 239.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 161.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 149.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 146$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 135.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 24c | 133.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 24c | 128.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 126.1$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 62c | 120.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 111.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 25c | 110.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked Yes | 19c | 110.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 107.11$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 97.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 13c | 92.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 89.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 17c | 80.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 25c | 76.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 68.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 60.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 59.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 23c | 59.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 57.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 74c | 54.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 77c | 51.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 49.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 47.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 42.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 37.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 80c | 35.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 54c | 33.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 33.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 79c | 25.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 77c | 24.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 20.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 19.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 59c | 17.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed No | 77c | 17.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or higher on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.