Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0393972a76e972c6b40bcb2f3b632015a508acd32e9e43e9a30792682f72b6b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 50c | 1,107$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.1 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 623.88$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.97 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 57c | 618.63$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.58 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 531.02$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 41c | 400$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.95 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 47c | 345.8$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.3 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 340.34$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed Yes | 42c | 338.96$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.42 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 281.79$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 41c | 268.1$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 258.19$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 233.42$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 49c | 222.9$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 222.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 222$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 44c | 204.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 202.85$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 38c | 171.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 39c | 166$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 55c | 151.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 61c | 147.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 48c | 138$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 60c | 129.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 50c | 128.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 126.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 63c | 120.76$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 49c | 118.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 43c | 115.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 41c | 106$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…c578backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 52c | 96.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 48c | 86.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 58c | 86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 45c | 83.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 41c | 80.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 78.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 40c | 67.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 66.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 63.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 64c | 62.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 65c | 60.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…16b9backed Yes | 63c | 60.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 56.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 39c | 49.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 37c | 48.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 48.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 60c | 47.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 43c | 47.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 47c | 47.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 41c | 46.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…d909backed Yes | 67c | 43.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 67cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 52c | 42.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 49c | 40.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 39c | 38.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 38.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 34c | 37.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 36.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 52c | 36.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 35.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 44c | 31.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 30.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…2fa9backed Yes | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 45c | 27.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…d5d9backed Yes | 58c | 25.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 54c | 23.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf9…7083backed No | 71c | 22.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 59c | 21.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…358bbacked Yes | 52c | 21.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes | 65c | 20.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…e8d0backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or higher on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.