Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe970161e3e375973109b9cbe5fd4eb820c4360bb5957726ae9693f986e2d3074
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 18c | 863.47$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.78 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 673.03$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.48 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 633.81$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.18 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 26c | 518.89$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.13 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 457.45$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 322.91$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 264.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 31c | 244.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.87 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 16c | 210.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.42 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 56c | 200.26$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 180.11$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 25c | 172.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 21c | 139.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.69 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 72c | 139.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 48c | 136.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 79c | 130$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 126.1$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 29c | 115$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 52c | 112.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 111.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a8…1cb8backed Yes | 28c | 106.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +251.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 37c | 102.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 96.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 90.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 57c | 87.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 85.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 22c | 84.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 78.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 73.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 44c | 72.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 68.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 67.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…cac7backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 23c | 64.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 62.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 27c | 58.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 75c | 57.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 57.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 24c | 53.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 53.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 51.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 22c | 50.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 29c | 50.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 24c | 47.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 46.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 45.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 58c | 43.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 34c | 42.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 39.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 42c | 37.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 37.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 34.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked Yes | 39c | 33.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 31c | 32.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 71c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 33c | 30.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 29.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 26.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebb…45fcbacked Yes | 46c | 24.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked No | 59c | 21.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…2f31backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed No | 58c | 19.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 16.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or higher on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.