Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6f92a8f2156dcc613947e9c8c0021b192ea336522e1fa3535d9678ebdb836dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 457.72$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 51c | 361.75$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.73 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 339.14$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 270$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked No | 56c | 249.18$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.95 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 65c | 236.86$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 55c | 183.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 47c | 183.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.15 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba7…8732backed Yes | 49c | 162.03$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 151.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 136$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 134.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 132.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 37c | 130.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 126$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 125.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 39c | 121.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 68c | 118$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 105.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 102.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 45c | 92.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 70c | 91.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 47c | 91.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8923…545bbacked Yes | 71c | 80.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 75.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…b8a8backed No | 66c | 75.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 53c | 75.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 66c | 75.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 51c | 67.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 64.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 49c | 64.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 24c | 64.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 55c | 63.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 58.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 44c | 58.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 56c | 56.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 53c | 56.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 55.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 53.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 51.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 62c | 50.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 23c | 47.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 54c | 45.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d03…6c9fbacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 54c | 41.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 39.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 33c | 39.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 57c | 38.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 30c | 36.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 34.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 56c | 30.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 50c | 30.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 63c | 29.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 37c | 27.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 50c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 42c | 25.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 59c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed Yes | 49c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 20.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…2f31backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…9232backed Yes | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.