Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc751b1152df1ec3d16fe75763bc63edc8e6bcb1e90863490f39c0068d0994954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 1,078$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 23c | 947.95$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.17 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 923.52$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 1c | 777.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.66 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 3c | 634.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.06 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 9c | 467.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 463.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.3 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 463.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.12 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 9c | 438.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.75 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 380.39$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 367.26$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 25c | 326.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.74 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 9c | 314.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.56 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 309.17$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 230.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 11c | 219.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.28 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 35c | 199.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.64 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 185.41$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…dc99backed Yes | 6c | 159.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 157.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 66c | 149.47$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 31c | 138.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176c…62f6backed Yes | 11c | 133.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 40c | 124.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c02…ad12backed Yes | 79c | 114.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 114.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 10c | 113.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 23c | 97.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 85.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 80c | 75.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 64c | 73.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 71c | 72.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…be1ebacked Yes | 30c | 64.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…1867backed No | 69c | 60.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 37c | 54.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 54.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked Yes | 76c | 40.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 36.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…de48backed No | 51c | 31.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 79c | 26.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…2124backed Yes | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…aecabacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5686…690abacked Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…6555backed Yes | 79c | 13.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.