Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbef9dcd5ef8f1e24d103ec265d73fcfbf4abbcaeec03d561f8f2f57bedd4b0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 6c | 1,100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 999.5$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.65 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 730.53$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 10c | 686.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 667.68$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 542.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 452.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 26c | 443.73$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 423.88$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 402.08$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 368.1$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 9c | 361$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 21c | 323.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 8c | 292.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 265.43$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 261.96$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 43c | 225.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 219.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 41c | 219.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7c10backed Yes | 44c | 218.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 44c | 192.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 191.7$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 185.41$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 44c | 185.34$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 16c | 178.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 31c | 165.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 164.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 37c | 155$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 53c | 151.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 45c | 142$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 29c | 138.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 74c | 135.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 16c | 132.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 129$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 125$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 123.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 13c | 117.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 107.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 20c | 102.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 101.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 94.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 37c | 94.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 93.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 93.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 85.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 36c | 84.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 21c | 82.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 40c | 82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 77.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…bf76backed Yes | 30c | 71.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 58c | 70.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 46c | 66.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 66.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 46c | 64.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 62.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 38c | 59.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…ace6backed Yes | 51c | 58.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 55.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 53.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 60c | 52.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 58c | 52.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…a6b8backed Yes | 49c | 51.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 51.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 63c | 50.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 33c | 50.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 59c | 49.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 43c | 49.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 48.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 44c | 48.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 41c | 46.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 42c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 55c | 45.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 43.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 55c | 39.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 57c | 39.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 51c | 39.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 77c | 38.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 48c | 38.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 37.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed0…1258backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 45c | 34.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 75c | 33.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 44c | 31.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.