Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0c882a53492e0aff24e324d48c83bf0c3b3bf50ab1a89a370fcdf2aef70b67c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 49c | 3,616$1,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.45 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 46c | 1,464$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 42c | 1,002$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.57 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 772.52$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 653.67$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 621.68$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…66d8backed Yes | 53c | 615.41$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 51c | 583$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.11 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 568.82$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 54c | 555.61$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.16 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 518.17$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.21 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cc…80d5backed Yes | 53c | 513.08$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 440.39$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 410.03$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.41 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…7bfcbacked Yes | 52c | 399.99$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 57c | 352.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 14c | 315.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 50c | 282.39$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.62 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 261.37$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.21 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 219.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.57 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb850…ba65backed No | 66c | 218.72$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 215.88$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 189.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 51c | 189.43$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 52c | 189.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.47 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…3880backed No | 56c | 182.86$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 48c | 181.25$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 48c | 167$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 164.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 45c | 157.53$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 151.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 149.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 52c | 145.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 48c | 135.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 135.12$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 39c | 133.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 50c | 130.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 35c | 124.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0405backed Yes | 55c | 116.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 47c | 113.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 53c | 110.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 49c | 105$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 102$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 97.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…ace6backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 55c | 91.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 53c | 87.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…8ed9backed No | 46c | 86.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 56c | 86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 67c | 85.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 53c | 84.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…686ebacked Yes | 56c | 83.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 79.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 58c | 78.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 50c | 77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 53c | 69.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 69.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 49c | 69.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed No | 48c | 66.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 64.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 24c | 61.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 46c | 55.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 52.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 58c | 51.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 56c | 51.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 68c | 47.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 50c | 47.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…af42backed No | 49c | 47.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…0fbbbacked No | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked No | 42c | 46.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 48c | 42.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 49c | 42.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 57c | 41.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 73c | 39.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2790…6331backed No | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…fccabacked No | 49c | 38.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 55c | 36.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.