TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on April 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,949

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,023 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6c64…c336backed Yes1c12,696$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.284030%12 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes74c1,301$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.6330919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01de…f177backed No37c1,028$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.021040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No77c970.1$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.6542130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes26c892.94$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.515,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No58c564.08$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.841,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x292a…5d78backed No59c545.05$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.79333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes42c520.52$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.7957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No34c518.66$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.5312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No17c509.06$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.4349038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes67c419.37$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.3817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes57c403.92$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.971,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes29c379.59$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2474023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes35c351.06$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.959,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe951…ea77backed Yes50c338.06$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.851850%9 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa76c…9df3backed Yes56c317.26$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.386547.7%31 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No18c315.89$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.9734057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes67c313.4$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.6146444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes74c291.36$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.618643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No34c291.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.21,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No24c274.15$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.691,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No24c268.44$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.82,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No30c259.06$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.2919152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No32c251.33$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.071,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f7b…e79fbacked No28c247.78$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.032638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes76c247.59$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.4765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No38c233.87$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.4184124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes64c232.36$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.681,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes59c225.25$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5efb…5e3bbacked No27c216.74$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.92846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+47%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes74c215.42$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.1535465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes72c210.71$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8215545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes69c203.7$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.421,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No28c201.81$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.014,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a9…7422backed Yes65c199.89$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.14366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3011…add7backed No23c191.53$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.931435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No69c187.86$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4686420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes79c186.91$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.787146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0877…6770backed No32c183.97$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.662025%5 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes74c164.86$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5311249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked No28c155.64$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.671,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes74c151.84$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.423855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes54c150$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.629732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes47c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7023677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed Yes67c145$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.67137.7%1 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.33per pick40cpaid-61.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes79c139.51$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6126738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a0b…d29dbacked Yes70c138.52$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9740%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes41c138$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5811038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No48c134.75$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9731649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes44c130$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.63644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed No28c129.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.091,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes64c128.2$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.946240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed No14c127.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.99344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes74c125.53$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.165043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes65c121.71$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes19c120.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.42,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes67c120.47$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1542857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd731…4199backed Yes64c110$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.99273.9%68 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30ad…22d6backed Yes74c109.75$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.346144.3%27 W · 34 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes70c104.32$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.629445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33a4…acf1backed No40c103.08$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a38…16a5backed Yes66c102.92$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.695543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes64c101.23$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.748,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9a…1fefbacked Yes74c100.54$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+75.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b9…66aabacked Yes51c99.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes69c99.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4712735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No19c99.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.491,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes65c99.44$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.643256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes68c99.33$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.545846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5d8…9dd0backed No14c99.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3712330.1%37 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes65c98.87$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2739541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f8b…a682backed Yes36c97.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.781921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…e43ebacked No49c94.43$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2118060%108 W · 72 L-21.2wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-16.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked No31c91.06$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7318650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8919…e1e6backed Yes73c87.34$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd12…9debbacked No25c86.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.38714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-44%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2971…b79ebacked No28c84.22$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No34c82.82$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.382,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes60c79.53$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.918351.8%43 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes58c78.66$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7739535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes43c77.6$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.422828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes76c75.74$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.433138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4124…7175backed Yes79c75.61$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb68…b96cbacked No27c75.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+88%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda7b…3c9fbacked No40c74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.412567.2%84 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…dd39backed Yes59c69.57$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.952330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f93…480bbacked No30c68.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.316040%24 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes70c68.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2525239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff6…8ac5backed Yes30c67.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.337034.3%24 W · 46 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x988e…bd82backed No25c67.47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3612339%48 W · 75 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes74c67.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8544945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No19c67.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.222,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x988e…d0d0backed No73c66.55$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.911369.9%79 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7054…e544backed Yes58c66.32$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.31650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99cd…bafbbacked Yes34c66.19$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.18728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid+28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdccb…e335backed No77c63.22$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056b…e7a4backed Yes61c62.75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.153020%6 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.